Conflicting signals: AI investments vs. ROI doubts

Feb 16, 2026

11:21pm UTC

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AI investments continue surging, evident in headlines, fundraising rounds, stock rallies, and product launches. But executives are having second thoughts.

The AI company Dataiku released a new global report based on a Harris Poll survey of more than 800 CIOs worldwide, and it found that CIOs are not only facing regret from their AI investments, but also hold anxiety about what AI’s ability to perform means for their organization's future and their jobs.

A majority of CIOs (74%) said their role will be at risk if their company does not deliver measurable business gains from AI within the next two years. At the same time, they are not seeing the results, yet they are being questioned about them. The report found that:

  • 74% say they regret at least one major AI vendor or platform decision made in the last 18 months.
  • 62% say their CEO has directly questioned or challenged those decisions.
  • Nearly one-third (29%) say they have repeatedly been asked to justify AI outcomes they could not fully explain.

“ROI is a real question, but the honest answer is that we're early. It's normal that measurement frameworks haven't caught up with a technology whose application is still being defined,” Kurt Muehmel, Head of AI Strategy at Dataiku, told The Deep View. “The pressure is real. But the answer isn't to stop investing, it's to stop investing badly.”

To maximize the value of AI investments, Muehemel recommends avoiding a single model provider. Advantages of this approach include: switching to better models as they evolve rapidly, leveraging cheaper alternatives if the AI bubble pops, and avoiding the need to rebuild your entire system when swapping out a model.

A Gartner report that surveyed more than 300 CFOs and finance leaders also found that they are willing to increase AI spending in 2026 based on the future promise of AI. The report found that 60% of CFOs plan to increase AI investments in the finance function by 10% or more in 2026, while another 24% expect gains of 4% to 9%.

“This investment surge is driven by a 'Return on the Future' mindset, which prioritizes long-term strategic disruption and competitive parity over immediate financial gains,” said Nauman Raja, Director Analyst at Gartner. “After all, 88% of CFOs view AI as a critical mandate for future efficiency, so its potential of being a disruptive force is too great for CFOs not to invest in and try to achieve gains with.”

Our Deeper View

The major theme explored in both reports is a shift from experimentation to accountability. While business leaders and budgets have focused on AI adoption in recent years, the emphasis has now shifted to demonstrating measurable ROI. However, it's too early to see clear returns, leaving business leaders in a difficult position, forced to make significant investments without proof that they will pay off in the long run. Ultimately, to maximize ROI, the best advice is to implement AI to solve problems your organization already faces, not to pursue benefits that are too abstract to conceptualize clearly.

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