ne of the foremost AI labs predicted three distinct scenarios for AI's future economic impact, and two involve large swathes of the workforce losing out. But what is the reality of that future?

Earlier this month, Anthropic's economics team released research painting a picture of AI's potential modest, substantial, and extreme impact on the economy by 2030. While all three involve increases in the GDP, ranging from a 1.6% increase to a 32.4% increase, the catch is job displacement. The bigger the impact AI has on the economy, the larger the percentage of knowledge workers who are stripped of their jobs, with a large portion unable to find new work in the most extreme scenarios, according to this research.

Additionally, Anthropic predicts that, as the impact of AI grows more severe, despite the growth in the GDP, the distribution of wealth is uneven, with more money made going back to capital than it does to workers' wages. As it stands, 60 cents of every dollar made goes back to the worker, and 40 cents to capital. AI could flip these figures in the most extreme scenarios, stagnating wages and worsening unemployment. That's the picture Anthropic paints in this report.

Here are the three scenarios:

• Modest scenario: Anthropic says that AI has roughly the same impact on the economy as the internet, driving significant gains, though within historical norms. The GDP reaches $34.1 trillion, up 1.6%, by 2030, and though 0.3% of knowledge workers are displaced, all of those workers are able to be reallocated into new roles.
• Substantial scenario: AI has roughly the same impact as the railroad, causing an 8.3% rise in the GDP to $36.3 trillion. Around 2.5% of knowledge workers are displaced, 1.8% of which are able to find new roles by 2030.
• Extreme scenario: GDP sees a 32.4% increase by 2030 to $44.4 trillion as a result of unprecedented growth, likely led by the development of recursive self-improvement. 13.5% of knowledge workers are displaced, and only 5.2% are able to find new work, leaving 8.3% unemployed.

However, there may be a few hitches in the more extreme scenarios that Anthropic laid out, Julius Probst, senior economist at recruitment marketing firm Appcast, told The Deep View. For one, these scenarios assume that all of the GDP value that AI is generating will be consumed. But in the most extreme scenario, if we are heading towards a labor market facing wide-scale unemployment and a great deal of concentrated wealth, "that is probably a bad assumption," said Probst. Many consumers would not be able to afford to buy things, meaning that the GDP won't actually surge.

"Wealth inequality will soar, but these people will not buy additional cars or additional houses," said Probst. "There's only so many more houses a billionaire can have."

The other hitch is that the model largely lumps together all knowledge workers into one bucket. The reality is that, while knowledge workers will be broadly impacted, many companies are still seeking senior, more skilled workers whose roles can be complemented by AI, said Probst. But even that won't be sustainable for long, he said, as many of those senior workers will retire and companies will realize they need to invest in junior talent again. "I don't think this situation can persist for another three to five years. At some point in time, companies will realize we need to hire junior people again."

And given that a large portion of the labor force is involved in physical work that can't be supplanted by AI, of the three scenarios Anthropic painted, the most likely is the modest one, he said. "AI growth is really showing up in two sectors only, and that is the tech sector and professional business services."

Our Deeper View

There has long been a narrative being pushed by AI stakeholders that the tech is inevitable, and that every worker needs to get on board or be left behind. Anthropic's economic scenarios, especially the most extreme, support that narrative. If you are not able to keep up with AI skills, you could end up one of the 8.3% of knowledge workers that Anthropic predicts will be unable to cross over into a new job by 2030. But there are important caveats to remember in this forecast. The first is that the companies parroting the idea that AI is going to upend our economy and every worker needs to hop on board has a clear incentive to get as many people to adopt its technology as possible. And the second is that the future is not decided. Anthropic, to its credit, notes this in its research. However, in order to prevent the worst outcomes of AI, we need to prepare our economy and workforce for AI now, and stop believing the narrative that AI transformation, and the havoc it can wreak, are inevitable.